26 October – 1 November 2026 / W44
Weekly Copper Brief
Futures fell into the month-end, prompt metal stayed tight, and the US tariff decision stayed pending ahead of the 3 November elections.
01 / The week in three sentences
The week in three sentences
Copper ended October lower on both sides of the Atlantic: LME three-month copper stood at $14,140 a tonne on 30 October after a 1.5% Friday fall, and COMEX December copper settled at $6.4820 a pound, leaving October as the first monthly loss since June, down 1.8%.
The pullback did not loosen prompt metal: the LME cash contract kept its premium over the three-month contract, China's Yangshan import premium held near a 13-year high of about $205 a tonne, and Shanghai cathode spot premiums averaged 1,250 yuan a tonne over the SHFE November contract.
For buyers, that split is the week: the futures dip is not a cheaper landed cost while premiums, prompt availability and US tariff timing set the price actually paid — in Europe for prompt tonnes, in China for imported and spot tonnes, and in the US for anything priced past the 3 November elections.
Do not read the futures pullback as cheaper metal. This week, premiums and timing — not the futures level — set the landed cost.
02 / Price table
This week, last week, change
One row per quote, each with its own source label and date. A change is shown only where the quote basis matches the week-43 row; otherwise the value stands without a change figure.
| Quote | This week | Last week | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LME 3-month copper | 14,140 USD / t | 14,078 USD / t | +62 (+0.4%) | Reuters via Kitco, 30 Oct 2026 |
| LME Official Cash (ask) | 14,449 USD / t | — | — | LME official prices via FT Mercati, 30 Oct 2026 |
| SHFE cu2612, close | 108,050 CNY / t | 108,740 CNY / t | — | Changjiang Nonferrous via Sina Finance, 30 Oct 2026 |
| COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement | 6.4820 USD / lb | 6.404 USD / lb | — | AP / CME settlements via The Edge, 30 Oct 2026 |
| Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN) | ≈ 205 USD / t | — | — | SMM via Kitco, 30 Oct 2026 |
| SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611 | 1,250 (avg) CNY / t | — | — | SMM Shanghai spot copper, 30 Oct 2026 |
Basis notes
- LME 3-month copper: Same prompt basis both weeks; week-43 figure is that issue's 22 October snapshot.
- LME Official Cash (ask): No cash row in the week-43 issue.
- SHFE cu2612, close: No change shown: the week-43 figure is labelled only as most-active, without contract or price type.
- COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement: No change shown: the week-43 figure is labelled only as a copper reference, without contract or price type.
- Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN): Near a 13-year high; no week-43 counterpart on this measure.
- SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611: Average of the 1,100–1,350 yuan range quoted on 30 October; no week-43 counterpart on this measure.
03 / Chart
LME warehouse stocks: barely moved
Total LME copper stocks, tonnes. Week 43 is the 22 October figure from the week-43 issue; week 44 is the 30 October daily report. On 30 October, 2,575 tonnes arrived and 775 tonnes left, a net build of 1,800 tonnes; on-warrant stock closed at 225,650 tonnes.
Columns are drawn to full scale from zero: the 250-tonne week-on-week difference is not visible at this scale, which is the point. Of the 30 October total, 225,650 tonnes were on warrant.
LME daily warehouse report via Metal Radar / The Vault Report, 30 Oct 2026
04 / Brass
Brass: week-43 rates stand in for week 44
No SMM week-44 brass operating rates had been published when this issue was compiled on 1 November, so the latest verified rates — week 43 — are shown below, labelled as week 43. SMM had expected billet rates to rise to 48.42% for the survey week of 23–29 October; that is an expectation published on 23 October, not an actual rate.
SMM expectation for billet, survey week 23–29 October: 48.42% (published 23 October 2026).
Tighter domestic scrap supplies in China helped support the Yangshan premium this week (Kitco, 30 October 2026).
05 / Policy
What actually changed this week
2026-10-28
World Bank lifts its 2027 copper price forecast
The World Bank's October Commodity Markets Outlook, released on 28 October, raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 a tonne, only 1.5% below its projected 2026 average of $13,200 a tonne, citing constrained mine supply and demand from power grids, data centres and electric vehicles.
2026-10-28
US wind-turbine Section 232 case ends without a new tariff
Proclamation 11074, signed on 22 October and published in the Federal Register on 28 October, closed the Section 232 investigation into wind turbines and their components with negotiations instead of a new tariff, and a progress update within 180 days. Existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium and copper are unchanged, so wind components made of significant amounts of those metals keep paying the duties already in place.
2026-10-28
LME defers one day of physical settlement after a systems incident
The LME said its downstream processing systems recorded a large number of trades with incorrect prompt dates on 27 October, and deferred settlement of all physically settled contracts with a prompt date of 28 October to 29 October. Trading itself proceeded normally.
2026-10-29
SHFE suspends bonded delivery for copper and aluminium futures
SHFE notice 上期发〔2026〕371号, issued on 29 October, suspended the bonded delivery business for copper (CU) and aluminium (AL) futures from that date. Normal delivery and BC copper are unaffected.
Standing line: Decision (EU) 2024/367 applies from 31 December 2026 — 60 days from 1 November 2026. Decision (EU) 2024/367
06 / Procurement takeaways
One line per buyer group
China buyers
Shanghai cathode premiums averaged 1,250 yuan a tonne over the November contract and the Yangshan premium held near $205 a tonne: the landed cost this week was set by premiums, so a lower futures print alone does not cut procurement cost.
Europe buyers
LME cash kept its premium over the three-month contract while total stocks were flat at 274,000 tonnes: prompt availability, not headline tonnage, is the constraint — confirm prompt metal and its premium before relying on stock cover.
US buyers
COMEX December copper settled at $6.4820 a pound on 30 October while the refined-copper tariff decision stayed unapproved ahead of the 3 November elections: tariff timing, not the futures level, is the swing factor for US landed cost.
07 / Next week's watch list
Next week's watch list
- 01
US elections and the refined-copper tariff decision
Midterm elections on 3 November; the Commerce proposal of 15% from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, was still unapproved at the end of week 44.
- 02
LME stocks and the US warehouse share
Whether daily LME stocks keep building, and whether the US share unwinds from the 62% recorded on 22 October.
- 03
SMM week-44 brass operating rates
Week-44 brass rod and billet rates when published, against the 48.42% billet expectation for the 23–29 October survey week.
- 04
Shanghai premiums into the November buying round
Whether Shanghai cathode premiums hold near 1,250 yuan a tonne as downstream buyers open a new procurement round in November.
Weekly Brief 02 — print edition
26 October – 1 November 2026
Copper ended October lower on both sides of the Atlantic: LME three-month copper stood at $14,140 a tonne on 30 October after a 1.5% Friday fall, and COMEX December copper settled at $6.4820 a pound, leaving October as the first monthly loss since June, down 1.8%.
The pullback did not loosen prompt metal: the LME cash contract kept its premium over the three-month contract, China's Yangshan import premium held near a 13-year high of about $205 a tonne, and Shanghai cathode spot premiums averaged 1,250 yuan a tonne over the SHFE November contract.
For buyers, that split is the week: the futures dip is not a cheaper landed cost while premiums, prompt availability and US tariff timing set the price actually paid — in Europe for prompt tonnes, in China for imported and spot tonnes, and in the US for anything priced past the 3 November elections.
Do not read the futures pullback as cheaper metal. This week, premiums and timing — not the futures level — set the landed cost.
Prices
- LME 3-month copper: 14,140 USD / t · 2026-10-30 · +62 (+0.4%) · Reuters via Kitco, 30 Oct 2026
- LME Official Cash (ask): 14,449 USD / t · 2026-10-30 · LME official prices via FT Mercati, 30 Oct 2026
- SHFE cu2612, close: 108,050 CNY / t · 2026-10-30 · Changjiang Nonferrous via Sina Finance, 30 Oct 2026
- COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement: 6.4820 USD / lb · 2026-10-30 · AP / CME settlements via The Edge, 30 Oct 2026
- Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN): ≈ 205 USD / t · 2026-10-30 · SMM via Kitco, 30 Oct 2026
- SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611: 1,250 (avg) CNY / t · 2026-10-30 · SMM Shanghai spot copper, 30 Oct 2026
LME warehouse stocks: barely moved
Total LME copper stocks, tonnes. Week 43 is the 22 October figure from the week-43 issue; week 44 is the 30 October daily report. On 30 October, 2,575 tonnes arrived and 775 tonnes left, a net build of 1,800 tonnes; on-warrant stock closed at 225,650 tonnes.
Brass
No SMM week-44 brass operating rates had been published when this issue was compiled on 1 November, so the latest verified rates — week 43 — are shown below, labelled as week 43. SMM had expected billet rates to rise to 48.42% for the survey week of 23–29 October; that is an expectation published on 23 October, not an actual rate.
- Brass rod, SMM week 43: 50.43%
- Brass billet, SMM week 43 (survey week 16–22 Oct): 47.46%
Policy
2026-10-28 — World Bank lifts its 2027 copper price forecast: The World Bank's October Commodity Markets Outlook, released on 28 October, raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 a tonne, only 1.5% below its projected 2026 average of $13,200 a tonne, citing constrained mine supply and demand from power grids, data centres and electric vehicles. · World Bank via MINING.COM, 29 Oct 2026
2026-10-28 — US wind-turbine Section 232 case ends without a new tariff: Proclamation 11074, signed on 22 October and published in the Federal Register on 28 October, closed the Section 232 investigation into wind turbines and their components with negotiations instead of a new tariff, and a progress update within 180 days. Existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium and copper are unchanged, so wind components made of significant amounts of those metals keep paying the duties already in place. · Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, 27 Oct 2026
2026-10-28 — LME defers one day of physical settlement after a systems incident: The LME said its downstream processing systems recorded a large number of trades with incorrect prompt dates on 27 October, and deferred settlement of all physically settled contracts with a prompt date of 28 October to 29 October. Trading itself proceeded normally. · LME statement via FX News Group, 28 Oct 2026
2026-10-29 — SHFE suspends bonded delivery for copper and aluminium futures: SHFE notice 上期发〔2026〕371号, issued on 29 October, suspended the bonded delivery business for copper (CU) and aluminium (AL) futures from that date. Normal delivery and BC copper are unaffected. · Guoxin Futures via Sina Finance, 30 Oct 2026
Standing line: Decision (EU) 2024/367 applies from 31 December 2026 — 60 days from 1 November 2026.
Procurement takeaways
China buyers: Shanghai cathode premiums averaged 1,250 yuan a tonne over the November contract and the Yangshan premium held near $205 a tonne: the landed cost this week was set by premiums, so a lower futures print alone does not cut procurement cost.
Europe buyers: LME cash kept its premium over the three-month contract while total stocks were flat at 274,000 tonnes: prompt availability, not headline tonnage, is the constraint — confirm prompt metal and its premium before relying on stock cover.
US buyers: COMEX December copper settled at $6.4820 a pound on 30 October while the refined-copper tariff decision stayed unapproved ahead of the 3 November elections: tariff timing, not the futures level, is the swing factor for US landed cost.
Next week's watch list
US elections and the refined-copper tariff decision: Midterm elections on 3 November; the Commerce proposal of 15% from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, was still unapproved at the end of week 44.
LME stocks and the US warehouse share: Whether daily LME stocks keep building, and whether the US share unwinds from the 62% recorded on 22 October.
SMM week-44 brass operating rates: Week-44 brass rod and billet rates when published, against the 48.42% billet expectation for the 23–29 October survey week.
Shanghai premiums into the November buying round: Whether Shanghai cathode premiums hold near 1,250 yuan a tonne as downstream buyers open a new procurement round in November.