2–8 November 2026 / W45
Weekly Copper Brief
Futures fell to the worst week since March while prompt premiums hit records in China, and the US election left the refined-copper tariff undecided.
01 / The week in three sentences
The week in three sentences
Copper fell for a fourth straight session on Friday 6 November: LME three-month copper ended the week at $13,775 a tonne, down 2.6% on the week in its steepest weekly drop since March, SHFE cu2612 closed at 104,260 yuan a tonne, and COMEX December copper settled at $6.2375 a pound — a technology-led sell-off after the US midterm elections, not a supply-driven fall.
The futures fall did not loosen prompt metal: LME cash still traded $181 a tonne above the three-month contract, China's Yangshan import premium hit a record $217.50 a tonne, Shanghai cathode spot premiums hit a record 2,615 yuan a tonne, and SHFE warehouse stocks fell more than 24% in the week to 33,848 tonnes, their lowest in almost three years — while LME stocks jumped to 316,675 tonnes, with 70.1% of them sitting in US warehouses as of 5 November.
For buyers, the split is the week: the futures price fell while the price of actually taking metal rose — in China for prompt and imported tonnes, in Europe for 2027 contract tonnes already priced at record premiums, and in the US for anything priced past a tariff decision the election left unmade.
Do not read the futures dip as cheaper metal. This week, premiums, prompt availability and the undecided US tariff set the landed cost.
02 / Price table
This week, last week, change
One row per quote, each with its own source label and date. A change is shown only where the quote basis matches the week-44 row; otherwise the value stands without a change figure.
| Quote | This week | Last week | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LME 3-month copper | 13,775 USD / t | 14,140 USD / t | -365 (-2.6%) | Reuters via MINING.COM, 6 Nov 2026 |
| LME Official Cash (ask) | 13,955 USD / t | 14,449 USD / t | -494 (-3.4%) | LME official prices via FT Mercati, 6 Nov 2026 |
| SHFE cu2612, close | 104,260 CNY / t | 108,050 CNY / t | -3,790 (-3.5%) | SMM SHFE close comment, 6 Nov 2026 |
| COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement | 6.2375 USD / lb | 6.4820 USD / lb | -0.2445 (-3.8%) | CME settlements via The Edge, 6 Nov 2026 |
| Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN) | 217.50 USD / t | ≈ 205 USD / t | +12.50 (+6.1%) | SMM, 6 Nov 2026 |
| SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611 | 2,615 (avg) CNY / t | 1,250 (avg) CNY / t | +1,365 (+109.2%) | SMM Shanghai spot copper, 6 Nov 2026 |
Basis notes
- LME 3-month copper: Same prompt basis both weeks; week-44 figure is that issue's 30 October snapshot.
- LME Official Cash (ask): Same basis both weeks: LME Official Cash (ask) via FT Mercati.
- SHFE cu2612, close: Same contract and price type both weeks: SHFE cu2612 close.
- COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement: Same contract and price type both weeks: COMEX Dec-26 settlement.
- Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN): Same measure both weeks (SMM-CUYP-CN). The 30 October figure was reported as near $205, so the change is approximate; the 6 November figure is a record for warehouse warrants, with bills of lading at $210.
- SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611: Same measure both weeks: average SMM #1 cathode spot premium over SHFE cu2611; the 6 November average is a record high.
03 / Chart
LME warehouse stocks: a 42,675-tonne weekly build
Total LME copper stocks, tonnes. Week 44 is the 30 October figure from the week-44 issue; week 45 is the 6 November daily report. Stocks rose 42,675 tonnes over the week, driven by inflows into US warehouses; on 6 November itself, 2,000 tonnes left and none arrived, and on-warrant stock closed at 282,825 tonnes.
Columns are drawn to full scale from zero.
LME daily warehouse report via Metal Radar / The Vault Report, 6 Nov 2026
04 / Brass
Brass: billet inches up, rod still on week-43 rates
No SMM week-45 brass operating rates had been published when this issue was compiled on 8 November, so the latest verified rates are shown below, each labelled with its own survey week: brass billet for the survey week of 23–29 October, published on 30 October, and brass rod for week 43. SMM had expected billet rates to edge up to 48.17% for the survey week of 30 October–5 November; that is an expectation published on 30 October, not an actual rate.
SMM expectation for billet, survey week 30 October–5 November: 48.17% (published 30 October 2026).
By enterprise size, SMM's October monthly review (published 5 November) put large billet producers at 48.74%, medium-sized at 31.81% and small at 21.65%, with smaller producers constrained by raw materials and orders.
Tight prompt supply reached the shop floor: SMM reported on 6 November that some processing enterprises halted furnaces and cut production amid the high premiums, with sellers and buyers in a standoff in the spot market.
05 / Commercial terms watch
Commercial terms watch
The terms behind the price: premiums, processing charges and prompt availability, each with its dated source and one line on what it means for buyers.
| Terms | Signal | What it means for buyers | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper premiums — 2027 annual contract offers | Aurubis will charge European customers a record $347 a tonne for 2027 refined copper, up 10% from $315 in 2026; Codelco offered European customers a record $350 a tonne for 2027, up from $325 in 2026. Both companies declined to comment on the figures, which come from market sources. | 2027 European cathode costs about $350 a tonne above LME before freight and duty — budget the premium, not the LME price. | Reuters via Kitco, 14 Oct 2026 Reuters via Kitco, 20 Oct 2026 |
| Conversion / processing charges — copper concentrate TCs | Spot treatment charges are deeply negative: Antofagasta secured -$310 a tonne for 10,000 tonnes of Centinela concentrate, and Teck's Highland Valley material traded in the minus $370s. The 2026 annual benchmark was set at $0, down from $21.25 in 2025 — and headline TCs now obscure true smelter economics, with by-product credits and bespoke terms doing much of the work. | Concentrate scarcity, not smelter capacity, sets refined supply — watch the 2027 benchmark talks at Asia Copper Week in late November, not the headline TC alone. | Reuters analysis, 3 Nov 2026 |
| Raw-material availability — China prompt cathode | SHFE warrant stocks fell 2,247 tonnes on 6 November to 4,327 tonnes; SMM-tracked social inventory stood at about 62,600 tonnes on 5 November, down 71,800 tonnes year on year; SHFE warehouse stocks fell more than 24% in the week to 33,848 tonnes, their lowest in almost three years. | Prompt cathode is scarce and getting scarcer — delivery slots, not the futures level, decide what a buyer can actually take. | SMM, 6 Nov 2026 |
| China import premium — Yangshan | SMM Yangshan premiums averaged $217.50 a tonne for warehouse warrants and $210 for bills of lading on 6 November, both records. | Imported metal into China costs a record premium over LME — a lower LME print does not lower the landed cost. | SMM, 6 Nov 2026 |
A row appears only where a dated public source exists. No dated source was found this week for lead times or for payment terms, so those rows are omitted rather than estimated.
06 / Policy
What actually changed this week
2026-11-03
US midterms leave the refined-copper tariff undecided
Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. The proposed 15% tariff on refined copper from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, remains unapproved: analysts at TD Securities and BMI see it as less likely now, but the decision stays with the president under Section 232, the levies remain unenacted, and the new Congress does not convene until January 2027.
Standing line: Decision (EU) 2024/367 applies from 31 December 2026 — 53 days from 8 November 2026. Decision (EU) 2024/367
07 / Procurement takeaways
One line per buyer group
China buyers
Shanghai cathode premiums averaged a record 2,615 yuan a tonne over the November contract and the Yangshan premium hit a record $217.50 a tonne, with SHFE stocks at a near-three-year low: prompt tonnes cost more even as futures fall — secure prompt supply before the cu2611 delivery on 17–18 November rather than waiting for a lower futures print.
Europe buyers
The 2027 annual premiums are set at records — $347 a tonne from Aurubis and $350 from Codelco — and LME cash holds $181 over the three-month contract: budget 2027 on premium plus LME, not on the LME price alone, and confirm prompt availability outside the US, where stocks are thinnest.
US buyers
US warehouses held 70.1% of LME copper on 5 November and COMEX stocks hit a record 732,315 tonnes, yet the 15% refined-copper tariff from 2027 is still undecided after the election: the metal is piled up in the US, but the 2027 duty is still unknown — do not read the stockpile as cheap 2027 supply.
08 / Next week's watch list
Next week's watch list
- 01
The refined-copper tariff decision
Whether the White House acts before year-end; the proposed 15% from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, is still unapproved, and the new Congress convenes in January 2027.
- 02
LME stocks and the US warehouse share
Whether metal flows back out of US warehouses from the 70.1% recorded on 5 November, and whether the 316,675-tonne total keeps building.
- 03
SHFE cu2611 delivery
Last trading day 16 November, delivery 17–18 November; whether Shanghai premiums stay near the 2,615 yuan record after the roll to cu2612.
- 04
SMM week-45 brass operating rates
Billet and rod rates for the 30 October–5 November survey week when published, against the 48.17% billet expectation.
- 05
2027 concentrate benchmark talks
Asia Copper Week in late November, where the 2027 TC/RC benchmark is negotiated after a year of negative spot charges.
Weekly Brief 03 — print edition
2–8 November 2026
Copper fell for a fourth straight session on Friday 6 November: LME three-month copper ended the week at $13,775 a tonne, down 2.6% on the week in its steepest weekly drop since March, SHFE cu2612 closed at 104,260 yuan a tonne, and COMEX December copper settled at $6.2375 a pound — a technology-led sell-off after the US midterm elections, not a supply-driven fall.
The futures fall did not loosen prompt metal: LME cash still traded $181 a tonne above the three-month contract, China's Yangshan import premium hit a record $217.50 a tonne, Shanghai cathode spot premiums hit a record 2,615 yuan a tonne, and SHFE warehouse stocks fell more than 24% in the week to 33,848 tonnes, their lowest in almost three years — while LME stocks jumped to 316,675 tonnes, with 70.1% of them sitting in US warehouses as of 5 November.
For buyers, the split is the week: the futures price fell while the price of actually taking metal rose — in China for prompt and imported tonnes, in Europe for 2027 contract tonnes already priced at record premiums, and in the US for anything priced past a tariff decision the election left unmade.
Do not read the futures dip as cheaper metal. This week, premiums, prompt availability and the undecided US tariff set the landed cost.
Prices
- LME 3-month copper: 13,775 USD / t · 2026-11-06 · -365 (-2.6%) · Reuters via MINING.COM, 6 Nov 2026
- LME Official Cash (ask): 13,955 USD / t · 2026-11-06 · -494 (-3.4%) · LME official prices via FT Mercati, 6 Nov 2026
- SHFE cu2612, close: 104,260 CNY / t · 2026-11-06 · -3,790 (-3.5%) · SMM SHFE close comment, 6 Nov 2026
- COMEX copper, Dec-26 contract (HGZ6), settlement: 6.2375 USD / lb · 2026-11-06 · -0.2445 (-3.8%) · CME settlements via The Edge, 6 Nov 2026
- Yangshan copper premium (SMM-CUYP-CN): 217.50 USD / t · 2026-11-06 · +12.50 (+6.1%) · SMM, 6 Nov 2026
- SMM #1 copper cathode, Shanghai, spot premium over SHFE cu2611: 2,615 (avg) CNY / t · 2026-11-06 · +1,365 (+109.2%) · SMM Shanghai spot copper, 6 Nov 2026
LME warehouse stocks: a 42,675-tonne weekly build
Total LME copper stocks, tonnes. Week 44 is the 30 October figure from the week-44 issue; week 45 is the 6 November daily report. Stocks rose 42,675 tonnes over the week, driven by inflows into US warehouses; on 6 November itself, 2,000 tonnes left and none arrived, and on-warrant stock closed at 282,825 tonnes.
Brass
No SMM week-45 brass operating rates had been published when this issue was compiled on 8 November, so the latest verified rates are shown below, each labelled with its own survey week: brass billet for the survey week of 23–29 October, published on 30 October, and brass rod for week 43. SMM had expected billet rates to edge up to 48.17% for the survey week of 30 October–5 November; that is an expectation published on 30 October, not an actual rate.
- Brass rod, SMM week 43: 50.43%
- Brass billet, SMM survey week 23–29 Oct: 47.91%
Commercial terms watch
Copper premiums — 2027 annual contract offers: Aurubis will charge European customers a record $347 a tonne for 2027 refined copper, up 10% from $315 in 2026; Codelco offered European customers a record $350 a tonne for 2027, up from $325 in 2026. Both companies declined to comment on the figures, which come from market sources. 2027 European cathode costs about $350 a tonne above LME before freight and duty — budget the premium, not the LME price. · Reuters via Kitco, 14 Oct 2026; Reuters via Kitco, 20 Oct 2026
Conversion / processing charges — copper concentrate TCs: Spot treatment charges are deeply negative: Antofagasta secured -$310 a tonne for 10,000 tonnes of Centinela concentrate, and Teck's Highland Valley material traded in the minus $370s. The 2026 annual benchmark was set at $0, down from $21.25 in 2025 — and headline TCs now obscure true smelter economics, with by-product credits and bespoke terms doing much of the work. Concentrate scarcity, not smelter capacity, sets refined supply — watch the 2027 benchmark talks at Asia Copper Week in late November, not the headline TC alone. · Reuters analysis, 3 Nov 2026
Raw-material availability — China prompt cathode: SHFE warrant stocks fell 2,247 tonnes on 6 November to 4,327 tonnes; SMM-tracked social inventory stood at about 62,600 tonnes on 5 November, down 71,800 tonnes year on year; SHFE warehouse stocks fell more than 24% in the week to 33,848 tonnes, their lowest in almost three years. Prompt cathode is scarce and getting scarcer — delivery slots, not the futures level, decide what a buyer can actually take. · SMM, 6 Nov 2026
China import premium — Yangshan: SMM Yangshan premiums averaged $217.50 a tonne for warehouse warrants and $210 for bills of lading on 6 November, both records. Imported metal into China costs a record premium over LME — a lower LME print does not lower the landed cost. · SMM, 6 Nov 2026
Policy
2026-11-03 — US midterms leave the refined-copper tariff undecided: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. The proposed 15% tariff on refined copper from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, remains unapproved: analysts at TD Securities and BMI see it as less likely now, but the decision stays with the president under Section 232, the levies remain unenacted, and the new Congress does not convene until January 2027. · MINING.COM, 6 Nov 2026
Standing line: Decision (EU) 2024/367 applies from 31 December 2026 — 53 days from 8 November 2026.
Procurement takeaways
China buyers: Shanghai cathode premiums averaged a record 2,615 yuan a tonne over the November contract and the Yangshan premium hit a record $217.50 a tonne, with SHFE stocks at a near-three-year low: prompt tonnes cost more even as futures fall — secure prompt supply before the cu2611 delivery on 17–18 November rather than waiting for a lower futures print.
Europe buyers: The 2027 annual premiums are set at records — $347 a tonne from Aurubis and $350 from Codelco — and LME cash holds $181 over the three-month contract: budget 2027 on premium plus LME, not on the LME price alone, and confirm prompt availability outside the US, where stocks are thinnest.
US buyers: US warehouses held 70.1% of LME copper on 5 November and COMEX stocks hit a record 732,315 tonnes, yet the 15% refined-copper tariff from 2027 is still undecided after the election: the metal is piled up in the US, but the 2027 duty is still unknown — do not read the stockpile as cheap 2027 supply.
Next week's watch list
The refined-copper tariff decision: Whether the White House acts before year-end; the proposed 15% from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, is still unapproved, and the new Congress convenes in January 2027.
LME stocks and the US warehouse share: Whether metal flows back out of US warehouses from the 70.1% recorded on 5 November, and whether the 316,675-tonne total keeps building.
SHFE cu2611 delivery: Last trading day 16 November, delivery 17–18 November; whether Shanghai premiums stay near the 2,615 yuan record after the roll to cu2612.
SMM week-45 brass operating rates: Billet and rod rates for the 30 October–5 November survey week when published, against the 48.17% billet expectation.
2027 concentrate benchmark talks: Asia Copper Week in late November, where the 2027 TC/RC benchmark is negotiated after a year of negative spot charges.